European Office Occupier Markets

Track and compare 36 key real estate markets in Europe with our interactive Office Rental Clock

In the fourth quarter we saw the rise of two headwinds to the recovery: first was the emergence and rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, which appears to be more contagious but less virulent than its predecessors. Mounting case numbers led to the reimposition or tightening of economic and movement restrictions. As countries began the rollout of third vaccine doses, the use of vaccination passports also become more widespread. The second headwind was the acceleration of inflation. This was driven by several factors including rising energy prices, continued supply chain bottles necks, and staff and skills shortages. The Omicron strain could exacerbate these pressures, pushing inflation further above the multi-decade highs we are currently seeing. Inflation is widely forecast to peak in early 2022 before falling gradually thereafter, though the risks are for a higher and later peak especially if the pandemic continues and inflation expectations and wages begin to creep higher. Business confidence remains buoyant, and where activity growth has softened, it largely remains positive. The manufacturing PMI indices have dipped but remain strong in the face of supply chain and cost pressures. Q4 also saw a much earlier than expected change in direction on monetary policy. As we ended the year, despite rising COVID-19 case numbers and tighter restrictions, the outlook for 2022 remained solid. Growth is forecast to continue at above-trend rates, supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policy.

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JLL's Office Rental Clock demonstrates where each market sits within its rental cycle.
European Office Rental Clock
Exit city view

Source: JLL, December 2021

Note:
  • This diagram illustrates where JLL estimate each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle at the end of December 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic has had a material impact on real estate investment market performance. Across EMEA there is considerable variation in the extent of the human and economic impacts and the policy response. Regular real estate market activity has been disrupted, and the volume and range of transactions reduced compared with other periods, affecting the performance, trajectory and magnitude of market impacts. Every effort has been made to ensure the data published provides a quantitative and robust assessment of value at our survey date of 31st December 2021. Where prime real estate transactions have not occurred and evidence of actual market performance is absent, notional assessments have be made on the prevailing conditions using our experience and considered judgment.
  • Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and directions.
  • The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in their rental cycle.
  • Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects.
  • Their position refers to Prime Face Rental Values.

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