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Market Commentary

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Retail & Leisure News - 24​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ January, 2017

Christmas Trading Special: LFL growth for over 80% of UK retailers

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JLL's annual Christmas Trading Update reveals that over 80% of UK retailers and leisure operators that have disclosed performance figures for the key Christmas trading period have registered positive like for like (LFL) annual growth, with 50% delivering LFL growth in excess of 4% year on year.

Conditions remain challenging, however, and there were clear winners and losers within each sector. In the grocery sector the discounters were the frontrunners, with Lidl and Aldi growing market share; Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s are fighting back, however, and all revealed results ahead of expectations. In the department and variety store sector, Debenhams, House of Fraser, Fortnum & Mason and John Lewis reported strong sales growth after recent investment in their physical and e-commerce platforms; by comparison, M&S GM division performed poorly due in part to a failure to compete against the tide of Black Friday promotional activity. And in fashion, a number of premium brands benefitted from growing consumer demand for ‘affordable luxury’, including Jigsaw, White Stuff, Joules, Ted Baker and Superdry, which all registered strong growth, while Next and Primark struggled due to a variety of factors, including issues around stock selection and availability during the warm weather.​​​​​​​​​

Overall, online sales were the clear winner, and retailers that provide customers with an integrated, seamless offer continue to benefit from real competitive advantage. In particular, the growing influence of m-commerce was evident from the trading updates of Jigsaw (mobile sales up +115%), John Lewis (+31%), Very.co.uk (+32%) and Made.com (+122%), while White Stuff, N Brown and Debenhams also reported strong sales growth through mobile devices. By contrast, a number of discount retailers such as Poundland, Primark, Sports Direct, B&M and Bonmarché announced disappointing results; all have limited online operations, in addition to being susceptible to discounting elsewhere, and also declining footfall across UK high streets.​​​​​​​​​

One sector which is relatively immune to discounting is the foodservice sector. Christmas trade was generally strong for foodservice operators, with five of the top 11 performers coming from this sub-sector, due to growing consumer confidence and a firming of selling prices as consumers continue to move from a ‘price based’ to an ‘experience based’ decision.​​​​​​​​​

Looking forward, despite an unpredictable Christmas, and a couple of New Year casualties, the consumer recovery appears to have taken hold. Consumers have money to spend, as a result of cheaper fuel, deflation and rising employment and wages, and 2016 should see strong sales growth for UK Retail. The key for retailers is to continue to invest in providing consumers with seamless retailing experiences, while adroitly managing costs at the same time.​​​​​​​​​

If you are reading this table from a mobile device click here to view the PDF.

Retailer / Leisure operator Trading Period LFL
Sales Growth
Total
Sales Growth
Online Sales Growth
Burberry 3 months to 31 December c. 40.0% *22% **29.6%
Boux Avenue 6 weeks to 24 December 16.6%   **38.1%
Fortnum & Mason 5 weeks to 1 January 16.0%   22.0%
Superdry (Group) 10 weeks to 7 January 14.9% 20.6%  
Mountain Warehouse 6 weeks to 1 January 13.6% 28.8% 31.8%
Mamas & Papas 13 weeks to 25 December 11.0%    
Majestic Wine (Retail) 10 weeks to 2 January 7.5% 6.2% **25.0%
B&M Bargains 13 weeks to 24 December 7.2% *20.5%  
Superdrug 5 weeks to 2 January 7.2%   **47.0%
Halfords (Retail) 15 weeks to 13 January 7.0% 13.1% *16.3%
The Fragrance Shop 6 weeks to 31 December 6.8% 12.6% **15.4%
Greggs 13 weeks to 31 December 6.4%    
Moss Bros 23 weeks to 7 January 6.1% 7.6% 24.9%
Radley 6 weeks to 25 December 6.0%   *18.0%
Debenhams (Group) 7 weeks to 7 January 5.0% 5.0% 17.0%
Mitchells & Butlers 4 weeks to 7 January 4.7%    
Argos 15 weeks to 7 January 4.0% 4.1% 13.0%
Hobbs 13 weeks to 31 December 3.9% 14.3% **26.7%
Co-op 3 weeks to 31 December 3.5%    
Booker Group (Budgens & Londis) 16 weeks to 30 December 3.2% 2.9% 10.0%
Morrisons (exc. Fuel) 9 weeks to 1 January 2.9% 2.0% **76.1%
Waitrose (exc. Fuel) 6 weeks to 31 December 2.8% 4.8% 0.8%
John Lewis 6 weeks to 31 December 2.7% 4.9% 11.8%
House of Fraser 6 weeks to 31 December 2.7%   **17.8%
The Entertainer 5 weeks to 31 December 2.6% 13.5% 31.7%
Booths 3 weeks to 7 January 2.6% 1.8%  
Marks & Spencer (Clothing & Home) 13 weeks to 31 December 2.3% 3.1% 9.4%
Nisa 10 weeks to 1 January 2.2% 2.7%  
Robert Dyas 6 weeks to 24 December 2.0%    
Maplin 6 weeks to 24 December 1.4%   29.3%
Ryman 6 weeks to 24 December 1.4%    
Mothercare 13 weeks to 7 January 1.0% 0.6% 5.5%
Jack Wills December 1.0%    
Tesco (exc. Fuel) 6 weeks to 7 January 0.7% 0.8% **10.0%
Marks & Spencer (Food) 13 weeks to 31 December 0.6% 5.6%  
Topps Tiles 13 weeks to 31 December 0.3%   **15.2%
Dunelm 13 weeks to 31 December 0.2% 3.3% **21.7%
Pets At Home (Group) 12 weeks to 5 January 0.1% 4.4% **16.8%
Sainsbury's (exc. Fuel) 15 weeks to 7 January 0.1% 0.8% >9.0%
Ernest Jones 9 weeks to 31 December -2.2% -1.5%  
Bonmarché 5 weeks to 24 December -3.4% -1.5% -14.3%
H Samuel 9 weeks to 31 December -4.9% -4.6%  
Boohoo.com 4 months to 31 December   31.0%  
Sofa.com (International) 12 weeks to 9 January   28.0% 38.0%
Joules 7 weeks to 8 January 22.8% **24.9%
Reiss 6 weeks to 7 January   19.7% **26.4%
ASOS 4 months to 31 December   18.0%  
Ted Baker (International) 8 weeks to 7 January   17.9% 35.0%
Ann Summers 1 week to 26 December   17.2% 54.0%
Hotel Chocolat 13 weeks to 25 December   *16.2% **17.1%
Aldi December   >15.0%  
Primark (International) 16 weeks to 7 January   11.0%  
Jigsaw (International) 5 weeks to 31 December   10.0%  
Shop Direct 7 weeks to 23 December   *9.0%  
AO World 3 months to 31 December   8.9%  
FatFace 54 days to 24 December   7.9% **7.6%
Iceland 12 weeks to 31 December   4.7%  
N Brown (Group) 18 weeks to 31 December   4.1% 12.0%
Next 54 days to 24 December   -0.4% ^5.1%
GAME Digital (Group) 3 weeks to 7 January   -1.6% 10.3%
*Group
**Conlumino - Verdict estimate
^Directory

 

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