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UK Residential Market Forecasts May 2010

Average UK house prices have proven resilient in 2010 with the four months to April seeing price growth of 2.3%. Prices are now 13.6% higher than the trough in the market (Q1-09) and 9.8% lower than the peak values achieved in the third quarter of 2007.
We expect the current rate of price growth to plateau as the new government tackles the economic deficit and global economic uncertainties persist. The annual rate of growth is expected to fade during the remainder of 2010, ending down 1% on an annual basis across the UK and flat in the London market. London and the South is expected to outperform the wider UK market as a result of global investment capitalising on the continue weakness of sterling.
We expect 2011 to show signs of market stabilisation, allowing time for the economic recovery to be fully embedded by 2012. The outlook for the housing market remains strong over the medium-to-long term. Demand, activity and pricing will build through 2012-2014 encouraged by further lender and developer participation. We expect annual house price inflation to accelerate towards double-digits by 2013.

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