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Making sense of Brexit - update 1st August 2016

  • Early evidence on the immediate economic effects of the Brexit vote suggest a stark divide between the impact on UK sentimentand much milder spill-overs to the rest of Europe.
  • A similar pattern is emerging from occupiers, with a “business asusual” tone in activity across mainland Europe set againstcaution in UK transactions (albeit that most are still proceeding).
  • There is little evidence yet that Brexit is re-shaping corporatelocation decisions – this will require greater clarity on the UKsettlement as well as consideration of a range of other factors.
  • Direct commercial property investment has slowed since 2015,though in Q2 this was largely due to a pre-vote slowdown in UKactivity, as the rest of Europe saw an increase.
  • Market evidence suggests a swift, but relatively-shallowre-pricing of UK commercial real estate in response to the vote, with continued resilience in continental Europe.

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