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JLL predicts Chinese capital will solidify its mark on the global hotel market. The UK was the most liquid market across EMEA in 2014
CHICAGO, LONDON, SINGAPORE, Jan. 27, 2015 – Investors and lenders have plenty of reason to place confidence and capital in global hotel markets this year. JLL’s hospitality experts project that global hotel transaction volumes will reach an eight-year high between US$65 to US$68 billion in 2015, representing a 15 percent increase over 2014 volumes. JLL’s forecast is based on the firm’s 2015 Hotel Investment Outlook, a forward-looking, global analysis that tracks key factors affecting the hotel investment market. “The hotel market continues to strengthen and investors are eager to chase after top hotel deals,” said Mark Wynne-Smith, Global CEO, JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group. “We predict a rise in revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 5 to 8 percent this year, and that bodes well for the sector with even more runway ahead.” There are several drivers of hotel transaction activity across the global in 2015, including: · strong demand fundamentals, · increased liquidity in the debt markets, · record-high levels of single-asset trades, · more portfolio activity in secondary markets, and · a swell in off-shore capital. Transaction volumes in the Americas region will lead the way this year and could reach US$34.5 billion. Activity in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) is expected to garner US$24.7 billion while Asia Pacific’s numbers are projected to tally US$8.5 billion in 2015. Global Game Changer United States-based private equity funds and Middle East investors are expected to remain among the top exporters of outbound capital. It is the Chinese, however; who will lead the pack in terms of year-over-year increases in capital deployed. Chinese outbound capital experienced unprecedented growth in 2014 behind the strength of China’s growing economy and appreciating currency. China’s Ministry of Commerce’s policies relaxed restrictions on big-ticket foreign investments and simultaneously loosened the approval process for overseas purchases. This adjustment allows Chinese investors better access to the world’s key global markets such as New York, San Francisco, London, Paris and Sydney. JLL expects Chinese outbound capital to account for US$5 billion in 2015, a five-fold increase on 2014. This places Chinese investors among the ranks of top exporters such as the United States and the Middle East, when a few years ago China did not rank in the top-ten list. Regional Overview EMEA: Investment sales activity will be driven by single-asset transactions, led by London and Paris, while portfolio deals are anticipated in the U.K., Germany and Spain. Private equity shops will increasingly look to acquire assets in Southern and emerging European markets in pursuit of higher yields. Middle Eastern outbound capital will remain strong, targeting trophy assets in primary markets. JLL anticipates an uptick in securitized lending as well. The Americas: Private equity funds are ready to deploy capital and top targets include select service portfolios, resorts and secondary markets. Canada’s hotel market continues its robust performance while Mexico’s liquidity continues to rise due to the traction gained by new REIT-like investment vehicles formed in 2012. Investors are cautiously approaching Brazil’s market, but the northern region of South America has become an investor hot-spot, with Colombia at the helm. In the United States, debt remains readily available and hotel CMBS issuance is back to more than 60 percent of its previous peak. Asia Pacific: A transaction volume increase of 10 to 15 percent is anticipated, marked by growing interest in Japan, and in particular for portfolio deals in the country, as well as steady confidence in Australia. Indonesia will be a favored market driven in part by currency plays, and liquidity in China is set to rise as well. JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group serves as the hospitality industry’s global leader in real estate services for luxury, upscale, select service and budget hotels; timeshare and fractional ownership properties; convention centers; mixed-use developments and other hospitality properties. The firm’s 300 dedicated hotel and hospitality experts partner with investors and owner/operators around the globe to support and shape investment strategies that deliver maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset. In the last five years, the team completed more transactions than any other hotels and hospitality real estate advisor in the world totaling nearly US $36 billion, while also completing approximately 4,000 advisory, valuation and asset management assignments. The group’s hotels and hospitality specialists provide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research. For more news, videos and research from JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group, please visit: www.jll.com/hospitality or download the Hotels & Hospitality Group’s iPhone app or iPad app from the App Store.
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